|
You find yourself on a game show called "Let's Make A Deal." The game is very simple. There are three doors: door #1, door #2, and door #3. Behind one door is a million dollars. The other two doors contain worthless joke prizes. All you have to do is pick which door you want to open, and you get whatever is behind it. But you only get to open one door. By simple math, then, you obviously have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct door and becoming an instant millionaire. ![]() You pick a door. As soon as you tell Monty (the gameshow host) what door you want to open, he stops and says, "Okay, you've made your choice. Now, I'm going to do what we always do here on this game. I'm going to open one of the other two doors for you that I know has a booby prize." And he does so. Then he asks, "Okay, now, would you like to stay with your original guess, or would you like to switch to the other door that's still closed? You only get one shot, so do you want to stay with your original choice, or switch?" Here's the question: is there any compelling reason to switch doors? To be clear, there is no trickery, and Monty is not cheating. Furthermore, the money has not moved, will not be moved, and if you open the right door, you win the cash. Money is either behind the door you first picked, or behind the remaining unopened door. Should you switch?
Scroll Down
Yes, you should switch.
By showing you an empty door after your first choice, Monty's given you information. Your original choice had only a 1 in 3 chance of being right. Odds were 2 to 1 that the money was behind one of the other two doors--and he just showed you which of the other two doors was empty. Here's another way of thinking about it: let's play the same game, but it's got a thousand doors, not just three. Only one has money behind it. You pick the first door, and then Monty opens up 998 of the doors with junk prizes. Do you stay with your original, or do you switch? The odds of your first pick being right are 999-to-1 against, and that didn't change just because he opened up 998 empty doors.
Our winner is . . . Tresa Richardson International Yellow Pages Advertising
|